CMHC warns weaker ownership construction could erode affordability gains

Canada’s recent housing affordability improvements could be difficult to sustain if construction of ownership housing remains weak, CMHC warned in its Sept. 10, 2026 Housing Supply Report release.

The agency estimated that annual housing starts would need to rise to between 417,000 and 469,000 to restore affordability to pre-pandemic levels by 2036. That range is a model-based estimate of the pace required, rather than the number of homes actually started or completed in 2026.

CMHC said the supply gap had narrowed in Toronto since its previous estimates, stayed broadly stable in Vancouver, and widened in Montreal and Ottawa. It also reported that record construction had reduced Calgary’s gap.

The report distinguishes rental supply from homes built for ownership. CMHC said rentals dominate new supply in most major markets outside Calgary and Edmonton, while weaker ownership-oriented starts could constrain the future supply available to buyers.

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